The Physiographic Divisions of Ethiopia, 3.3. All the given crops show considerably high correlation with belg rainfall. The coefficient of variation is higher during the rainfall in the bega and belg seasons than the rainy season (kiremit rainfall season), as shown in Table2. Geological Processes and the Resulting Landforms of Ethiopia and the Horn, 2.5. 2016). Notably, there is a significant increase in the maximum number of consecutive dry days and significant decreases in the number of days with at least 1 and 10 mm of precipitation. 2011; Funk et al. Thus, the rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by spatial and temporalvariabilities.Rainfall in Ethiopia is the result is influenced by the position of Intertropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ). 2010 ). 2013; Irannezhad et al. Therefore, there were no gaps in the data series. Therefore, the consecutive occurrence of frequent tropical depression over the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO) overlapped with the recurrent drought of Ethiopia (1972 and 1984). The Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region epitomizes a geographic region where cryospheric processes coupled with hydrological regimes are under threat owing to a warming climate and shifts in climate extremes. Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres. Our analyses demonstrate that there will be an increase in precipitation intensity and a decrease in frequency over Zambia from the middle of the 21st century. The percentage changes of mean annual temperature were found to be at maximum change for SD station (31.30%) and at minimum change for DB station (7.60%). Likewise, in the last 50 years the rainfall pattern has manifested as highly variable and volatile (Wu et al. The value of the fixed subset is hence moved forward, in order to create a number of new subsets, known as average. By continuing to use our website, you are agreeing to, Journal of Water, Sanitation & Hygiene for Development, Time series trend analysis of temperature and rainfall in lake Tana Sub-basin, Ethiopia, Potential impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture of a semi-arid basin in Jordan, Distribution of the serial correlation coefficient, Evaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution and concentration of precipitation: a case for the region of Southeastern Anatolia Project, Turkey, Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation measures for rice cultivation in Northeast Thailand, Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Rainfall variability and trends in semi-arid Botswana: implications for climate change adaptation policy, Analysis of climate trends in North Carolina (19491998), Detection of hydrologic trends and variability, Adaptation to climate change in Africa: challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia, Estimating the impact of climate change on agriculture in low-income countries: household level evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Decadal climatic variability, trends, and future scenarios for the North China Plain, Observed monthly precipitation trends in China 19512002, Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. 5.3.2. **10% level of significance. Many researchers have undertaken trend analysis studies of the climate in some other parts of Ethiopia (Addisu et al. Therefore, community-based soil and water conservation practices help the communities to diversify their livelihood activities. Topographic map of the Ziway Lake Basin. However, studies focusing on Zambia are still limited and future climate variability is poorly understood. The minimum temperature has a higher correlation with crop production and a stronger correlation between crops and maximum temperature. Time series of all MMA precipitation indices exhibit significant increasing trends over the 19012099 period. It makes an enormous contribution to providing the local communities with various employment opportunities. The variation inthe amount of solar radiation received daily is small throughout the year. In this study, the spatiotemporal variability of Ethiopian soil moisture (SM) has been characterized, and its local and remote influential driving factors are investigated . Tmean, the mean annual temperature; Tmin, minimum annual temperature; Tmax, maximum annual temperature. (2014), it was concluded that a general tendency of increasing warm temperature, extreme variability and inconsistent precipitation trend was recorded in Ethiopia. The details of these stations have already been presented in Table2. The trend of increasing maximum temperature is stronger than the minimum temperature. After total observation of the 35-year period, a record 16 years (45.7%) were lower than the total annual rainfall of the area. The researches and analysis in this study indicates that, while climate change is likely to pose serious threats to development in the RM, it also has the potential to bring opportunities. Even though the rainfall indicates seasonal and inter-annual variability, the area is characterized by a bimodal rainfall regime, with maximum rainfall concentration during kiremit (summer) season, which extends from June to September. In administrative terms, it is located in Basona Worena District, in the North Showa zone of Amhara regional state (Figure1), situated 180 km northeast of the capital city, Addis Ababa. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. After visual identification of the outliers, each of the values was obtained using a normal ratio technique. The average annual aerial rainfall of the Beressa watershed is 891 mm, with a coefficient variation of 30.6% and standard deviation of 227 mm. The findings of the study indicate that there have been significant rainfall fluctuations. Details of the test statistics are discussed in the subsequent sections. Extreme precipitation and streamflow events are expected to become more frequent. To encompass the system, it needs an understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, and Trade Winds. This process is repeated for the whole data sequence. The rainfall and temperature daily records over 35 years (19802014) for the Beressa watershed were obtained from the National Meteorological Service Agency of Ethiopia from seven stations; hence rainfall on a monthly, seasonal and annual basis were derived from the daily data. Density distribution plots of observed climate indices for meteorological stations and gridded indices are also analysed, which indicate significant negative trends in the annual number of frost days and significant increasing trends in warm nights in the EH region over the 19602000 period. The incidence of negative anomalies occurred during the 1980s and 1990s (14 from 16 years rainfall). The production of beans was below 18-year mean in nine years out of 18 years production periods, as indicated in Table5, which accounts for 50% of the total bean production; while in respect of kiremit rainfall pea, chickpea, and lentil production (50, 50 and 55.5% respectively) were below the 18-year mean. This Therefore, this study was undertaken with the main objectives of spatiotemporal analysis of climatic parameters (rainfall and temperature) and its impact on crop production using various analysis techniques. This study assessed the historical (1983-2005) and future (2026-2100) rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) trends of the Ziway Lake Basin (Ethiopia). 2015 . 2005). The wetness of this region is particularly due to the prepotency of moist aircurrents of equatorial Westerlies called the Guinea Monsoons. 2014; Mondal et al. Thus temperature, as it is affected by altitude, decreasestowards the interior highlands. Most of the studies about rainfall and temperature characteristics are limited by short-term and long-term time series available for most parts of the regions. Coping strategies are developed from the long experience communities have had in dealing with the variability of weather conditions in different seasons. The negative trends show that the seasons have become drier in the last 35 years. The study watershed lies between 39 37E39 32E and 9 40N9 41N. 2015; Wagesho & Yohannes 2016). 5.3.1. The MannKendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. Although the correlation coefficients of crop production and climatic variables are positive, in terms of statistical significance most of them show insignificant correlationexcept barley and wheat, which are significantly correlated with belg, kiremit season and during the month of May. 2014). The Geological Time Scale and Age Dating Techniques, 2.4. During these seasons, rainfall is more highly variable than the main rainy season of the area. For example, months from March to June in Ethiopiahave records of highest temperatures. With respect to the statistically significant level, only barley and wheat crops are significantly related to belg and kiremit rainfall. Seasonal analysis of rainfall obtained from MK test statistic results are presented in Table3. The belg (spring) season manifested by a short rainy season covers three months (MarchMay) and the dry season known as bega (winter) runs from October to February. Correlation between crop production, and rainfall and temperature (19972014). According to Anderson (1942), in order to exclude the influence of serial correlation, before using MK test statistics, serial autocorrelation is tested by Lag-I autocorrelation using different levels of significance (0.01, 0.05 and 0.1%). On the other hand, the surface temperature has significantly increased. As presented in Table3, the Sen's slope estimator indicates an upward trend in four stations and a downward trend in three stations for annual rainfall. Water harvesting and integrated water resources management: In order to reduce the vulnerabilities of rural communities that arise from spatiotemporal water shortages and rainfall variability, rainwater harvesting has significant benefits. In order to correct change points in the time historical series, the Adapted Caussinus Mestre Algorithm for homogenising Networks of Temperature series homogeneity test is used. In Ethiopia, the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature varies widely (Regassa et al. The variation for the belg season is presented in Figure2. Autumn (September, October and November)Autumnis the season of the year between summer and winter. Afar and parts ofEritrean coastal areas experience rainfall in this period. (2011) and Manandhar et al. However, after 1999 and onwards, recovery in the long-term average rainfall emerged higher than the average mean, except for the drier conditions in 2002 and 2013 which were lower than the long-term mean. Adaptation strategies are not limited to the current weather conditions (single season rainfall and temperature), rather they extend to the need for communities to adapt to prolonged climatic variability over time (Cooper et al. For most developing countries of the world, agriculture is the basis of the economy. Thus, the rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by spatial and temporal variabilities. Climate Change/Global Warming: Causes, Consequences and Response Mechanisms, CHAPTER SIX SOILS, NATURAL VEGETATION AND WILDLIFE RESOURCES OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN. Specifically, we examine and evaluate multi-model, multi-scenario climate change projections and seven extreme temperature and precipitation indices over the eastern Himalaya (EH) and western Himalaya-Karakoram (WH) regions for the 21st century. This cereal crop shows stronger correlation with the kiremit rains. When the tropical depression is observed in the SWIO, the daily rainfall is significantly decreased. Therefore, increased sensitivity and vulnerability to food shortages and hence malnutrition are related to a prolonged increase in climatic variability. The location of Ethiopia at close proximity to equator, a zone of maximum insolation,resulted for every part of the country to experience overhead sun twice a year. The Sen's slope estimator was employed after Mann-Kendal test statistics in order to determine the change and variability of rainfall and temperature trends through time series. The capital of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, is located at an elevation of 7,726 feet, and as such its climate remains relatively cool throughout the year. As shown in Figure2, during the period 19802014 the seasonal rainfall trend of the Beressa watershed for the kiremit season shows less rainfall variability throughout the study periods. Winter (December, January and February)In winter, the overhead sun is far south of equator. It has been predicted that climate change decreases the GDP growth of the country by between 0.5 and 2.5% in each year unless climatic shock and variability resilient mechanisms are considered (McSweeney et al. Therefore, there is a need for community-based coping and adaptation strategies such as adopting soil, water conservation and water harvesting strategies; and increasing diversified crops, high value and market oriented crops, fast growing crops and climate resistant crops, which are less susceptible to future climatic variability. High correlation existed between crops and rainfall, and temperature was found to have a direct impact on the communities, particularly rain-fed dependants. Results of the ensembles for CMIP3 and CMIP5 are generally indistinguishable regarding projected impacts on hydrology. Therefore, in order to know the yields, annual rainfall is less important for prediction. The moving average is possibly acquired by considering the initial subset average. Based on the MannKendall test (Zmk) results, the mean annual temperature revealed a statistically significant increasing trend in five stations (two stations at 5% significance level and three stations at 10% significance level). The annual maxima of 1 d and consecutive 5 d precipitation are also projected to increase. 2012). The average rainfallvaries from less than 500 to 1,000 mm.iv. The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. The time series of five years moving average minimum and maximum temperature was analysed for the period 19802014. Therefore, long-term analysis of climatic trends has been used to characterize the situations (Singh et al. Water Resources Potentials and Development in Ethiopia, CHAPTER FIVE THE CLIMATE OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 5.2. 2010; Simane et al. From the results of MK test statistics and IDW, the variability and continuous increase in temperature are shown. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.064. A significant increase in annual mean temperature was observed in all stations, with the magnitude varying from 0.03 C/year and 7.60% in DB station to 0.14 C/year and 31.30% at SD station. Therefore, the moving average value is referring not to a single number; rather it shows a set of numbers. 2015). The average rainfall inthe region varies from 1,400 to over 2,200 mm/year.iii. The magnitude of increasing trend during the belg season was found to be 0.40 mm/year and 30.00% in DB station and a significantly decreasing trend was found to be 0.12 mm/year and 10.00 in GIN station. (2011), adaptation strategies are an important mechanism for managing climatic change and variability. Rainfall Regions of EthiopiaBased on rainfall distribution, both in space and time, four rainfall regions can be identifiedin Ethiopia and the Horn. In this season, the effect of the northeast trade wind is very muchreduced. The changes in the mean of hydrologic states and fluxes by the end of the 21st century are statistically robust, whereas changes in the variance are not found to be statistically significant. 1982; Burn & Elnur 2002; Yue et al. Part II: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Intraseasonal to Decadal Variability, Modeling Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Projections of the 5th Assessment Report for the Bernam River Basin, Malaysia, Future Changes in Water Supply and Demand for Las Vegas Valley: A System Dynamic Approach based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate Projections, Differentiating Snow and Glacier Melt Contribution to Runoff in the Gilgit River Basin via Degree-Day Modelling Approach, Performance Evaluation and Comparison of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Datasets over the Ziway Lake Basin, Ethiopia, Effect of projected climate change on potential evapotranspiration in the semiarid region of central India, Simulating Streamflow in Response to Climate Change in The Upper Ewaso Ngiro Catchment, Kenya. The results of correlation analysis between crop production and climatic variables (rainfall and temperature) during the period 19972014 are shown in Table5. The result could downplay the effects of decreasing RH on plants and wildfire. The study area encompasses six . 2001; Kurukulasuriya & Mendelsohn 2008). Bean, pea, chickpea and lentil production are particularly related to kiremit rains in all stages because these crops are sown in the second week of June. This statistical test is a popular and important tool in detecting the trend used by many other scholars for related applications (Hirsch et al. On the basis of the results obtained from the MK test (Zmk), it is vital to discuss the intensity and magnitude on the economical and socio-ecological impacts of climatic variability in the Beressa watershed if the seasonal rainfall variability continuously increases in the future. On the other hand, 19 years (54.3%) recorded more than the annual average rainfall. 2013; Muhire & Ahmed 2015). 2014; Kishore et al. The mean annual rainfall of the basin spatially varies from 417 to 1012 mm, with a noticeable temporal variation at a monthly time scale. All crop production shows considerably high correlation with maximum temperature and stronger correlation with barley, while in the case of minimum temperature, poor correlation was observed for all crops. Generally, as can be seen from Figure3, there has been a high increase in overall temperature, which may result in a decrease in productivity and food insecurity. Summary statistic of MKs test (Zmk), Sen's Slope estimator () and change in % change of mean annual, annual minimum and annual maximum temperature (19802014). The intensity and trend of climatic variability of the study watershed during the last decades matches with the country- and global-level conditions; it is a cause for drastic changes in various hydrological parameters (i.e. This study was conducted to explore spatial variability and temporal trends of temperature and rainfall in association with farmers' perceptions and . Therefore, it is pertinent for decision-makers to develop suitable adaptation and mitigating measures to combat climate change in the Basin. To avoid the generalities inherent in regional projections, projections focussing on an individual country are necessary. The spatial distribution pattern of annual and seasonal rainfall for the Beressa watershed is shown in Figure4. Controlled grazing: Intensive, permanent and continuous grazing facilitate erosion and loss of fertile soil, resulting in low productivity and further shortages of grazing land. As the shift takesplace, equatorial westerlies from the south and southwest invade most parts of Ethiopia bringingmoist winds.However, these winds decrease the length of rainy seasons and magnitudes on the line of theshift. The indicators included in this study are based on many different information sources. At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of the Basin experienced declining trends on annual and seasonal timescales. Tesfa Worku, Deepak Khare, S. K. Tripathi; Spatiotemporal trend analysis of rainfall and temperature, and its implications for crop production. 2015). In the rainfall distribution during belg and kiremit it was found that there was a moderate concentration of precipitation throughout the seasons, which shows that there is no uniform distribution, whereas during the bega season a significant change in the PCI was shown, thus the concentration of precipitation is increasing and rainfall has become more erratic. This study presents a largely indicator-based assessment of past and projected climate change, impacts and the associated vulnerabilities of and risks to ecosystems, agriculture, water recourses, forestry, bioclimatic conditions, human health and society in the RM, based on a wide range of observations and different model simulations. 2016). You can download the paper by clicking the button above. From Figure3, it is confirmed that the maximum temperature has continuously increased by about 1.10 C, whereas the minimum temperature has increased by about 0.70 C. Both duration and amount ofrainfall decreases as we move from southwest to north and eastwards. Barley, bean and chickpea show significant correlation with maximum temperature. Another study by Di Falco et al. Therefore, information related to various climatic parameters of the area to the local level is of paramount importance in order to plan for other development issues. Therefore, appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies have to be included in the development agenda to reverse the trend. The aim of the study was to examine the spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the northeast highlands of Ethiopia. Southeastern lowlands of Ethiopia receive rain during autumn and spring seasons when both the northeasterlies and equatorial westerlies are weak. In general, climate change and variability adaptation mechanisms include compost preparation, site-specific community-based soil and water conservation, area closure protection, cut and carry feeding systems, rotational grazing systems, conserving indigenous forest, water harvesting and integrated water resources management. In the last few decades, incidence of climate change related hazards have manifested in the form of recurrent drought, erosive rain, rainfall variability and flood events (Kenabatho et al. The mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 15 C for the highlands to 28 C close to Ziway Lake. 2013; Pachauri et al. Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. The most common types of soil are Cambisols (locally called Abolse), Vertisols (Merere), Andosols, Fluvisols and Regosols. The steepness of these trends generally falls between 0.22 and 0.47 on Sens slope estimator at a significance level of 5%. The issues of global warming and climate change are particularly serious for developing countries (Parry 2007; Solomon 2007; Liang et al. The present results are in agreement with Parry (2007), who stated that due to a prolonged increase in the emission of gases through human activities and expansion of industry, the surface temperature has increased by about 1 C. Moving average rainfall and temperature can be obtained by using the following equation: Inverse distance weighted interpolation methods (IDW) have been used in order to analyse annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature. Within this regional context, temperature data are modeled to assess its projected variation impacts on rainfall depth due to climate change. Back to Lesson. Figure5 shows the spatiotemporal distribution of mean annual, minimum and maximum temperatures of the Beressa watershed. The shift takes place when the trade winds from the north retreat giving the space forequatorial westerlies. During the belg (small rainy) season the subdivision indicates a slightly increasing rainfall trend and the bega season (dry season) shows a negative trend, as already presented in Figure2. The area is characterized by diverse topographic conditions such as mountainous and dissected terrain with steep slopes. 3.1 Spatial distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia. This happens because the MT-CLIM algorithms VIC incorporates infer an overly large positive trend in atmospheric moisture content in this region, likely due to an underestimate of the effect of increasing aridity on RH. 2005). The monthly maximum and minimum temperatures are for the same points and girds, but cover the period 1981-2011. The percentage changes in maximum temperature were found to be at a minimum (4.00%) and maximum (37.60%) in the GIN and ENW stations respectively. Following theposition of the overhead sun, the ITCZ shifts north and south of the equator. The mean annual temperature varied between 13 and 15.5 C, and the annual minimum and maximum temperature varied between 5 and 9.5 C, respectively. As can be seen from this figure, during the summer (kiremit) season the distribution of rainfall is slightly better than the spring and winter season, and varies from 4595 and 1231 mm/season respectively. Conversely, low flow conditions will intensify during the warm months. In line with Rashid et al. In the years between 1981 and 1984, the annual total rainfall was far lower than the mean long-term rainfall. Other studies have focused on very limited stations and arrived at a conclusion regarding the characteristics of spatial climatic variability for entire regions (Gamachu 1988; Meze-Hausken 2004). The magnitude of the significantly increasing trend of mean annual rainfall of 0.28 mm/year and 1.07% (DB station) was recorded, whereas a significantly decreasing trend of mean annual rainfall was observed with the values of 8.62 mm/year and 27.88% (HG station). 2012; Meshesha et al. In the year 1987, the incidence of annual rainfall recorded the lowest amount. Rock and Mineral Resources of Ethiopia, CHAPTER THREE THE TOPOGRAPHY OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 3.2. The focus of this research is to introduce the application of the polynomial neural network of the group method of data handling (GMDH) for the first time in the regional area of the New South Wales state of Australia. In nearly all cases the risk of rejecting the null hypothesis H0 when it is true is lower than 1%. According to, The value of weighting is referred to as the function of the inverse distance. 2014). 2015). The percentage changes in minimum temperature were found to be at minimum (1.90%) and maximum (52.40%) in GIN and DBS stations, respectively. At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of. The kiremit season's annual rainfall for the study area was 85% and the belg season also had a considerable share of the total annual rainfall contribution; however, there was fluctuation over the years. Because of the rainfall-dependent farming practice, farmers are always worried about the duration and intensity of rainfall. Enter the email address you signed up with and we'll email you a reset link. The guidelines for interpretation are presented in Table1. Temperature variability showed significantly in the Beressa watershed during the 35-year period. Spatiotemporal Distribution of RainfallRainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by complexities. 2007; Fu et al. What causes climate change? Despite the importance of soil moisture, studies on soil moisture characteristics in Ethiopia are less documented. Soil moisture is one of the essential climate variables with a potential impact on local climate variability. Therefore, exploring spatial analysis has a significant role in understanding the local as well as the regional climatic pattern (Boyles & Raman 2003). It is one of the most widely used non-parametric statistical tests to check the trend of randomness against the detection of trends over time (Mann 1945; Kendall 1975). Climatic variability in the past has been increasing and from the trends suggested in different studies, may further increase in the near future, putting urgent emphasis on how the community perceives the extent of climate change in order to design coping and adaptation strategies (Belay et al. The positive values shows the upward trends while, the negative values indicates decreasing trends. Annual total precipitation significantly reduces while the frequency of exceedance of the 95th and 99th percentile thresholds increases significantly. 2008; Subash et al. By comparison, time series of temperature indices show decreases in the intra-annual extreme temperature range and total number of frost days, as well as increases in warm nights. Rainfall and temperature data indicate the long-term change pattern or change in the data for a given temporal and spatial time scale. The future climate also shows a continuing positive trend in the temperature extreme indices as well as more frequent extreme rainfall events. Academia.edu no longer supports Internet Explorer. The calculated PCI for seasonal as well as inter-annual rainfall distribution for the spatiotemporal time series is shown in Table2. Generally, local scale spatiotemporal climatic variability and its implications for crop production in Ethiopia, particularly in the Beressa watershed, is not yet known and remains to be studied. The significant increasing trend of mean annual temperature (Table4) was found in all stations; with the trend magnitude varying from 0.03 to 0.14 C/year respectively. The long-term rainfall trend was assessed monthly, seasonally i.e. In the tropics, the daily range of temperature is higher and theannual range is small, whereas the reverse is true in the temperate latitudes. The High altitudesand the windward side experience such rainfall amount.ii. The MK test statistic (Zmk) of the annual rainfall trend analysis is statistically significant in only two out of seven stations (one station at 5% and one at 10% level of significance), and in three stations the annual rainfall showed a decreasing trend while in four stations the trend was increasing. Mean annual temperature varies from over 30 0Cin the tropicallowlands to less than 100c at very high altitudes.The Bale Mountains are among highlands where lowest mean annual temperatures are recorded.The highest mean maximum temperature in the country is recorded in the Afar Depression.Moreover, lowlands of north-western, western and south-eastern Ethiopian experiences meanmaximum temperatures of more than 300C.Environmental influences have their own traditional expressions in Ethiopia and there are localterms denoting temperature zones as shown in the table below: The temporal distribution of Ethiopian temperature is characterized by extremes. kiremit season (JuneSeptember), belg season (MarchMay), bega season (OctoberFebruary) and annually for all subdivisions, while the long-term trend of temperature was assessed for annual average, annual minimum and maximum temperature. We used 12-member ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate climate-attributed changes in the hydrology of the Mataquito river basin in central Chile, South America. 33 days from submission to first decision on average. All year-round rainfall regionIt has many rainy days than any part of the country. Ethiopias daily temperatures are more extreme than its annual averages. Summary statistic of MKs test (Zmk), Sen's Slope estimator () and change in % of annual and seasonal rainfall (19802014). Trends are biased positive in the interior western US, so that strong RH decreases are changed to weak decreases, and weak decreases are changed to increases. The annual minimum and maximum rainfall is 698.5 and 1083.3 mm, respectively. pieces of evidence indicated that a detailed study of the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall and temperature are very important for agricultural/urban planning (mehmet, 2015 ), flood frequency analysis, water resources assessments, assessing and understanding climate change impacts, and other environmental assessments (alemu, 2019; Conversely, the southeasterlies from the Indian Ocean provide rain to the highlands ofSomalia, and to the central and southeastern lowlands and highlands of Ethiopia. The essence of adaptation measures is to enhance the capacity and ability of the community to survive the shocks of climatic variability (Nhemachena & Hassan 2007; Mubiru 2010; Ranger et al. Precipitation projections indicate increased mean precipitation with more frequent extreme rainfall during monsoon season in the EH region, and a wetter cold season in the WH region. The present study aimed to undertake spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature and its implications. Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. Improving awareness about climatic variability and its adverse implications for their environment enables farmers to modify their resources and management practices and make efficient use of available water for better crop production. Before this period, the maximum temperature was 19.40 C and the minimum temperature was 6.20 C, with an average temperature of 12.80 C, while the time series maximum temperature has increased to 20.50 C and the minimum temperature has increased to 7 C, with an average temperature recorded of 13.75 C (Figure3). The aim of this study was to evaluate climate variability and characterize the spatiotemporal distribution of meteorological droughts using a merged satellite-gauge rainfall across the major agroecological zones (AEZs) of the rift valley lakes basin. 2015; Pingale et al. Spatiotemporal distribution and the characteristics of the air temperature of a river source region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Environ Monit Assess. Annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature are influenced by the variability of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which causes interannual rainfall variability over Ethiopia. The Mann-Kendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. The results revealed that the magnitude of significantly increasing trend and variability was observed in mean annual rainfall for DB station (at 0.28 mm/year and 1.07%). This is because the temperature and the amount of energy reaching the surface isdirectly related with the directness of the sun.The direction of rain bearing winds (leeward or windward side) also determines the temperaturevariations in mountainous regions. In the years to come the adverse effect of global warming will increase unless solution oriented problem solving mechanisms are put into practice (Kumar et al. These are: i. They are limited to the lowlands in the peripheries.Away from the peripheries the land begins to rise gradually and considerably, culminating inpeaks in various parts of the country. ; ed. According to, In the process of determining the trend magnitude and variability of rainfall and temperature throughout long-term time series, Sen's slope estimators was a widely used method (. Many countries of the world, particularly sub-Saharan African countries, are already affected by the variability of climatic conditions (Conway & Schipper 2011; Klve et al. In line with the study by Wu et al. This study investigates trends of climate extreme indices in the Komadugu-Yobe Basin (KYB) based on observed data of the period 1971-2017 as well as regional climate model (RCM) simulations for the historical period (1979-2005), the near future (2020-2050), and the far future (2060-2090). Such studies ignored the localized trends of rainfall and temperature, particularly in most highlands of Ethiopia. Elements and Controls of Weather and Climate, 5.3. Some of the studies conducted are based on areal averages of spatial climatic variability (Seleshi & Demaree 1995; Osman & Sauerborn 2001). Is it warming or cooling? Therefore, given the prolonged climatic variability of the Beressa watershed, the following coping and adaptation mechanisms are suggested. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were . The results from the coefficient of variations shown in Table2 revealed that in comparison with the kiremit rainfall season, during the bega and belg seasons rainfall varies considerably more. During this period,the Northeast Trade Winds carrying non-moisture-laden dominates the region. Water Resources: Rivers, Lakes and Sub-Surface Water, 4.4. The annual rainfall distribution is also variable in time and space. The correlation between rainfall during the months of MaySeptember and crops has a positive relationship, except in the cases of beans, peas and chickpeas, which are inversely correlated with rainfall during the month of June. However, local farmers evaluate climatic variability in relation to their crop productivity. Observed Data Hydro-meteorological instrumentation: For monitoring of quality data, which would be an early warning system, forecasting/projection and disaster response with timely information. For more than 70% of the world's population, the primary source of their livelihood has originated from weather sensitive agriculture (Suarez et al. (2012) found that due to global climate change the eastern part of Africa, including Ethiopia, was drying out. s u m m a r y Due to global warming the climate of central Chile is expected to experience dramatic changes in the 21st century including declining precipitation, earlier streamflow peaks, and a greater proportion of precipitation falling as rain. Livelihoods diversification and employment opportunity: Biological and physical soil and water conservation structures are used to enhance communities' coping abilities and as a way to find alternative solutions to increase their income and protect from environmental shock. To encompass the system, it needsan understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, andTrade Winds. 2005; Batisani & Yarnal 2010; Randell & Gray 2016). Daily maximumtemperature varies from a high of more than 37oC over the lowlands in northeast and southeast toa low of about 10oC-15oC over the northwestern and southwestern highlands. Fluctuating productivity and hence food insecurity for the area is due to long-term variability in the annual and seasonal rainfall. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. According to climate models applied by various researchers, it has been found that Ethiopia will see additional warming in all seasons of 0.72.3 C by the 2020s and 1.42.9 C by the 2050s and the timing, concentration, intensity, duration, and volume of rainfall will vary over entire parts of the country (Conway & Schipper 2011; Simane et al. Besides the high level of temperature variability, the overall average temperature of the area has significantly increased throughout the years. 2012). ABSTRACT: Extreme precipitation exerts damaging impacts on both society and ecosystems. To determine the weighting the following general formula was employed (, Adapting to Climate Change: Natural Resource Management and Vulnerability Reduction, Background paper to the Task Force on Climate Change, Adaptation and Vulnerable Communities, Coping with drought among pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in eastern Ethiopia, Climate change adaptation strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa: foundations for the future, Climate Change-Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks, Beyond the Famine: an Examination of the Issues Behind Famine in Ethiopia, International Institute for Relief and Development and Food for the Hungry International, Trend and variability of rainfall in Tigray, northern Ethiopia: analysis of meteorological data and farmers perception, Trending regional precipitation distribution and intensity: use of climatic indices, Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India, Crop switching as a strategy for adapting to climate change, Annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration in Ethiopia, Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Karamoja, Centennial rainfall variation in semi arid and tropical humid environments in the cardamom hill slopes, southern Western Ghats, India, Micro-level Analysis of Farmers Adaption to Climate Change in Southern Africa, International Food Policy Research Institute, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Kiremit season rainfall revealed a significantly increasing trend of about 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% at DB station and the magnitude of significantly decreasing trend was 0.90 mm/year and 16.20% at SD station. The analysis of vulnerability related to climate changes in Ethiopia implies that in the coming decades climate variability and volatility will threaten the social and economic order (damage to natural resources, agricultural productivity, water resources and ecosystems); therefore, the incidence and intensity of drought and famine occurrence is likely to increase. Air temperature estimation using remote sensing satellite provides a new way of conducting studies in the field of climate change study. For instance, unlikeother parts of Ethiopia, the southern and southwestern highlands experience reducedtemperature. Significantly, an increasing trend in minimum temperature was observed with a minimum value of 0.005 C/year in GIN station to a maximum value of 0.12 C/year in DBS station. Spatiotemporal Patterns and Distribution of Temperature and Rainfall in Ethiopia, 5.5. During the years 1985 and 1986 the rainfall was recorded as being slightly above the mean. In autumn the ITCZ shiftstowards the equator weakening the equatorial westerlies. NB: Kiremit: Summer; Belg: Spring; Bega: winter. Continuously increasing temperature, together with the variability and fluctuation of seasonal and inter-annual rainfall is a root cause for the decrease and fluctuation of crop production. Mixed crop-livestock is the production system of the area and is perhaps the only source of livelihood for the majority of the population. Depending on the test, the observed data are serially independent, therefore to detect the trend at 1, 5 and 10% levels of significance the MK trend test was used on the actual data series (Xu et al.

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